The market data is amazing!!

Pois é. O verão passou e lá estamos nós de volta.

And the return is full of situations, some in continuation of what we had previously discussed, others that turn out to be something surprising.

The markets are still in turmoil between the war in Europe, inflation, the possibility of anemic growth and the loss of purchasing power.

Not to mention issues such as state debt and the growing difficulty of refinancing at rates that do not increase difficulties.

Wherever we look, the issues seem to want to get worse.

Even in political matters, situations are beginning to emerge that are not yet known to be a cause for concern or not.

New Markets

Meanwhile, the North American market became the new supplier of investors and families settling in Portugal.

And with more and more references on social networks and some media, it seems that the flow is far from over.

During the first half of the year it seemed that it was the office and logistics market that were driving the real estate market, but it seems that the dynamics brought us some surprises.

Meanwhile, sales data for the residential market is surprising and appears to be counter-cyclical to other markets where falling sales are the dominant tone, such as the United States and some markets in the East.

It's a roller coaster

In addition to prices continuing to grow that appears to be non-stop, removing the possibility of buying for many segments. Increases that appear to be irrational, although there are certainly increases in terms of material costs, etc., these have already reached the used-home segment.

Despite the fact that the banks are already tightening up the access to credit facilities, due to the prospects of continued growth in interest rates (and following up on the Bank of Portugal's impositions) and the forecasts of poor economic evolution for all markets in the world.

But will this scenario last much longer?

With so many negative forecasts, from the IMF to the World Bank, or the European Commission, and all the cooling scenarios, are we going to see an abrupt cooling of the market, even more accentuated than what has been happening in other markets such as the US or from Great Britain?

Or will we continue to witness the maintenance of the "status quo" of the market and a continued escalation, also fueled by those markets that continue to invest here (at least in some regions).

If the real estate market suffers a chronic crisis again, is it now that the offer is developed at non-inflated prices for the domestic demand that remains unable to access under the present conditions?

This is despite the fact that the last quarters were one of the most sales of housing (we just don't know yet if they were new sales or the completion of business that have been dragging on, such as with the completion of the fractions under construction since the pandemic , and so with loan agreements that can have complex outcomes for many families).

Is there a bubble?

Or is it, as we mentioned in our last post, that there is in fact a bubble that will (like all bubbles) eventually burst?

As well expressed by Prof. Carlos Brito in his latest article in Dinheiro Vivo "Mais Vale Prevenir do Remediar", it is up to companies to prepare in time for the coming storm.

And although many in the sector continue to augur a promising future, it is up to investors to start making rational plans and studying the scenarios that are more real for their future interests or where investments can be secured without putting their assets at risk.

Have you thought about how you will make your market approach plan?

If you need help, you know - Imobintel.